Possible scenario
Ukraine Consolidates Gains
40% Chance
Ukrainian units stabilize the new positions east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, preventing Russia from restoring its previous line quickly. The gain remains tactical rather than decisive, but it disrupts Russian efforts to pressure the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk urban belt.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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