Possible scenario
Russia Contains Advance
30% Chance
Russian forces commit reserves, artillery, and drones to stop Ukraine from expanding the salient. Ukraine keeps some ground, but the advance slows before it becomes an operational breakthrough.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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