Possible scenario
Transatlantic Rift Deepens
27% Chance
The dispute becomes less about diesel supply and more about alliance discipline. Trump presses France and Germany to support his Russian diesel arrangement, while Brussels frames the demand as incompatible with the new sanctions regime.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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