Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Rises
22% Chance
The Kremlin escalates beyond rhetoric after Germany blocks the diesel arrangement and the EU expands sanctions. Russia avoids a formal war declaration but uses threats, cyber pressure and energy disruption to raise costs for European governments.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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