Possible scenario
EU Holds Line
38% Chance
Germany keeps rejecting the Trump-backed Russian diesel arrangement, but the EU and United States find a limited operational compromise around reserves and non-Russian supply. Moscow's rhetoric remains sharp, yet markets treat the episode as contained because EU unity broadly survives.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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