Possible scenario
Funding Stalemate Persists
20% Chance
U.S. funding cuts and Greece's refusal to release 200 Patriot missiles continue to block the fastest resupply routes. Ukraine is forced to ration interceptors, leaving Kyiv exposed while Western governments debate financing and replacement guarantees.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.