Possible scenario
Emergency Western Resupply
38% Chance
Washington, Berlin, and NATO move quickly to prevent a visible collapse of Kyiv's ballistic-missile defenses. The most likely near-term fix is a mix of U.S. stock reallocations, European transfers, and accelerated replenishment contracts rather than a fully funded long-term package.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Tickers
- +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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