Possible scenario
U.S. Strikes IRGC
27% Chance
Repeated attacks despite escorts make a limited U.S. military response plausible. The likely objective would be to degrade IRGC Navy drone, missile, and small-boat launch capacity while avoiding a broader war with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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