Possible scenario
Hormuz Flows Disrupted
20% Chance
A more severe but still plausible scenario is a temporary functional disruption to Hormuz traffic. Even without a formal Iranian closure, mines, disabled hulls, and convoy pauses could interrupt crude, condensate, refined-product, and LNG flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -4.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.