Possible scenario
Petrol Shock Fades
30% Chance
The inflation jump proves largely transitory as petrol prices stabilize or fall from recent highs. Norges Bank gains room to characterize the August data as an energy-price distortion, reducing pressure for additional tightening rhetoric.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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