Possible scenario
Trump Strategy Backfires
44% Chance
Republicans largely keep the Trump-centered midterm frame despite warnings from GOP pollsters. With Trump at 37% approval and Democrats ahead on the generic ballot, swing-district Republicans struggle to separate themselves from the White House.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Energy -0.4%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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