Possible scenario
Trump Mobilizes Base
20% Chance
The warning proves too cautious because Trump's direct appeal boosts turnout among low-propensity Republican voters. Democratic advantages in polling remain real, but the GOP benefits from polarization, incumbency, and a favorable map in enough districts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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