Possible scenario
GOP Localizes Campaign
24% Chance
Republican strategists partially heed the warning and move vulnerable candidates away from a pure Trump referendum. The party still uses Trump to raise turnout in red states, but swing-district campaigns emphasize inflation, immigration, and local Democratic incumbents.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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