Possible scenario
Orderly Route Reopening
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a controlled normalization of U.S.-Mexico aviation rights after USDOT lifts the 2025 restriction. Mexican carriers add flights gradually from Mexico City-area airports, while U.S. regulators keep compliance monitoring in place without reopening the dispute.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- DAL+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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