Possible scenario
War Continues
30% Chance
The visa approval allows Pezeshkian to speak at the U.N., but the appearance becomes a messaging exercise rather than a negotiation. Washington keeps economic pressure in place, Tehran refuses military concessions, and the conflict remains contained but unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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