Possible scenario
Kinetic Escalation
20% Chance
The New York opening collapses and is followed by renewed attacks by Iran-aligned forces or direct Iranian strikes. Because the region is already in active war, the incremental market shock is material but not a full crisis reset unless energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz is directly threatened.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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