Possible scenario
Diplomatic Opening
40% Chance
Trump's approval of Masoud Pezeshkian's entry creates a narrow diplomatic channel despite the active U.S.-Iran conflict. The most likely constructive path is not a full settlement, but limited de-escalation around missile attacks, maritime security, detainees, or nuclear monitoring.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.8%
- Consumer Services +1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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