Possible scenario
Procurement Crackdown
25% Chance
Washington treats the episode as evidence of weak chain-of-custody controls in the F-35 program. Deliveries continue, but the Pentagon and partner governments impose stricter shipping, warehousing, and subcontractor certification requirements.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.8%
Tickers
- LMT-2.1%
- RTX-1.1%
- NOC-1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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