Possible scenario
Husted Rebound
28% Chance
Jon Husted closes the gap during the final stretch and defeats Brown despite the September polling deficit. The outcome would likely reflect stronger Republican rural turnout, improved GOP consolidation, and effective attacks on Brown's national Democratic ties.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Finance +0.5%
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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