Possible scenario
Brown Narrow Hold
22% Chance
Brown still wins, but the final margin is much tighter than the late September polling suggested. Absentee ballots, provisional votes, and turnout variations in exurban counties determine the outcome.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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