Possible scenario
Retaliation Cycle Widens
20% Chance
Ukraine responds by intensifying drone operations against Russian military logistics, fuel storage or refinery assets. This would raise near-term geopolitical risk and energy-price sensitivity, especially if Russian oil-product infrastructure is affected.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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