Possible scenario
Federal Control Holds
38% Chance
The federal government, backed by the security establishment, maintains the six-month suspension of the PTI-led Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government. Courts do not grant immediate relief, and Islamabad uses the period to break the PTI march infrastructure and reassert administrative control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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