Possible scenario
Courts Check Islamabad
22% Chance
Pakistan’s superior courts move faster than expected and scrutinize whether the federal order meets the constitutional threshold for suspending a provincial government. A partial or full stay reduces immediate confrontation and restores some space for PTI politics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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