Possible scenario
Travel Disruption Persists
25% Chance
The extended alert leads airlines and insurers to keep a more cautious operating posture across Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Iran and parts of the Gulf. Flight times, cancellations and premiums rise, but disruption remains far below the levels seen during acute airspace closures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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