Possible scenario
Regional Security Worsens
18% Chance
The alert extension proves to be an early signal of renewed security deterioration involving Iran-aligned groups, Israel and Gulf states. Even without a direct hit on civil aviation, perceived airspace risk increases and markets price a modest geopolitical premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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