Possible scenario
Alert Rollover Only
45% Chance
EASA's extension is treated as a routine safety rollover rather than evidence of a new threat. Major European and Gulf carriers keep most schedules intact, using existing NOTAMs, insurance procedures and contingency routings.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.