Possible scenario
Stalemate Persists
45% Chance
Iran maintains its seven trust conditions while Washington refuses to treat them as a basis for a final nuclear compromise. Inspectors remain partially engaged, but the uranium stockpile issue and sanctions sequencing prevent a breakthrough.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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