Possible scenario
Sanctions Tighten
18% Chance
The Trump administration responds to Iran's conditions with new enforcement actions rather than concessions. The measures focus on oil exports, shipping intermediaries, and banks facilitating Iranian trade, while Europe debates whether to align fully.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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