Possible scenario
Diplomacy Reopens
25% Chance
Mediators from Oman, Qatar, and the EU identify a face-saving path for both sides after the public rejection. The most likely compromise is procedural rather than final: renewed talks, staged sanctions relief discussions, and a uranium custody framework.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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