Possible scenario
Hormuz Risk Returns
20% Chance
A fresh security incident or Iranian warning restores the war-risk premium that the reserve-release news had reduced. Emergency barrels still cushion the shock, but traders reprice the possibility that recent Gulf flow gains are not durable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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