Possible scenario
Flows Keep Recovering
40% Chance
Gulf exports continue to normalize as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq keep terminals operating despite the Strait of Hormuz conflict. The G7 and IEA releases reinforce the supply cushion, pulling the risk premium out of crude over the next two sessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
- Consumer Services +0.9%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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