Possible scenario
No Deployment Confirmed
45% Chance
South Korea, the United States and NATO find no corroboration for a fresh 10,000-person North Korean deployment to Russia. Intelligence agencies continue to track rotations and training links, but the market treats the headline as a modest de-escalation rather than a structural change in the Ukraine war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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