Possible scenario
Supply Rerouting Stabilizes
20% Chance
The fixed quota becomes a framework for reallocating supply rather than cutting imports. Private refiners replace constrained Iranian flows with Iraqi, Omani, Russian or other discounted grades, preserving throughput at somewhat higher landed costs.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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