Possible scenario
Stricter Import Enforcement
25% Chance
Beijing keeps the headline quota unchanged but uses customs reviews, port inspections and tax documentation to curb off-quota or disguised crude flows. This particularly affects Shandong teapot refiners with prior exposure to Iranian barrels.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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