Possible scenario
Demand-Limited Status Quo
45% Chance
The unchanged 2027 non-state quota confirms Beijing is not trying to stimulate crude imports while gasoline and diesel demand remain capped by EV adoption and weak refining margins. Independent refiners keep operating, but actual quota utilization stays below the ceiling.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.