Prolonged Strait Closure

Even without immediate all-out U.S.-Iran escalation, commercial shipping effectively halts because insurers, flag states, and tanker owners refuse transits. Gulf crude and LNG flows drop sharply, creating a major short-term energy-price shock and pressuring energy-importing economies.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.