Possible scenario
Claim Partly Overstated
24% Chance
Fars's 19-vessel figure proves inflated or includes near misses, minor shrapnel damage, and duplicate reports. Maritime insurers still raise war-risk premiums, but confirmation of fewer disabled ships reduces the immediate fear of a complete Gulf energy shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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