Delay Becomes Baseline

The government formally moves the 3% defence spending review to autumn 2027, arguing that the Treasury needs a full fiscal cycle before committing to a permanent uplift. This is the most likely path because Burnham has recently stressed fiscal responsibility and the March 2026 financing requirement is already very large.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.