Possible scenario
Institutional Standoff Deepens
25% Chance
Dodik and SNSD could use the election result to contest the authority of Bosnia's state institutions and the Office of the High Representative. This would keep Republika Srpska in a prolonged legal and constitutional dispute, but likely below the threshold of armed conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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