Possible scenario
Removal Fight Escalates
25% Chance
The administration looks for a legal route to force Powell off the Federal Reserve Board despite the watchdog clearance. This would be a sharper challenge to central-bank independence and would likely generate a risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Technology -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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