Possible scenario
Pressure Stays Rhetorical
45% Chance
Trump continues criticizing Jerome Powell but does not initiate a formal removal process. Because Powell is no longer Fed chair but remains a governor, the most likely near-term outcome is a political fight with limited institutional effect.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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