Possible scenario
Powell Resigns Seat
15% Chance
Powell decides the political cost of staying is too high and resigns as a governor. This would give Trump another Fed Board vacancy and could shift expectations for future policy even if the immediate chairmanship is unaffected.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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