Possible scenario
Liquidation Stabilizes Quickly
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the $1 trillion drop is driven mainly by leveraged futures liquidation, ETF redemptions, and profit-taking after the 2025-2026 metals surge. Once forced selling clears, gold near $4,000 remains supported by central-bank demand and lingering de-dollarization flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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