Possible scenario
Dollar Repricing Deepens
27% Chance
A stronger dollar and higher real-rate expectations become the dominant interpretation of the metals crash. Investors unwind gold and silver as inflation hedges, especially if U.S. data keep the Federal Reserve cautious on cuts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.8%
- Technology -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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