Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
15% Chance
China or Russia quietly presses Pyongyang to avoid further launches while urging the U.S. and South Korea to scale back military moves. A formal breakthrough remains unlikely, but even a temporary pause would reduce immediate escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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