Possible scenario
Contained Weapons Signaling
45% Chance
North Korea continues short-range missile and artillery-system demonstrations without crossing into a direct attack on South Korea or Japan. This is the most likely path because Pyongyang often uses sequential tests to validate new systems and extract attention while staying below the threshold for military retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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