Possible scenario
Low-Key Advisory Role
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Kristi Noem's senior adviser title functions as a face-saving reassignment after her departure from the Shield of the Americas envoy post. State Department leadership keeps her portfolio narrow to avoid reopening tensions from her earlier DHS ouster.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.