Possible scenario
Higher Insured Losses
20% Chance
Damage surveys could reveal a larger insured-loss event than early casualty and outage numbers implied. Even then, the likely market reaction is concentrated in insurers, reinsurers, utilities, and repair-related retailers rather than broad national risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Utilities -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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