Possible scenario
Risk Premium Persists
30% Chance
Markets continue to demand a higher premium for France even without a fresh political break. The country remains fundable, but investors increasingly treat OATs as a fiscal-risk asset rather than a euro-area core benchmark.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.5%
- Utilities -0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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