Possible scenario
Political Rupture Accelerates
25% Chance
The market reversal becomes a political crisis as opposition parties use the bond-market pressure to challenge the government's budget. The risk is not immediate default, but a loss of fiscal-policy visibility before the 2027 presidential election.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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